General Election polls predict three different winners in Shrewsbury, North and South Shropshire
Early opinion polls suggest Labour is on course to take Shrewsbury in next month’s general election – but is unlikely to make significant inroads in the North or South Shropshire constituencies.
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Modelling released by YouGov this week suggests that nationally Labour is on course for a landslide win ahead of the country taking to the polls on July 4, with Julia Buckley rated as “likely” to become Shrewsbury’s first Labour MP since 2005.
Elsewhere in the county however the Conservatives are predicted to hold on to the former Ludlow constituency, now known as South Shropshire, with Liberal Democrat candidate Helen Morgan set to retain her seat in the North Shropshire constituency.
The MRP poll by pollsters YouGov is a sophisticated modelling technique using factors such as gender, age, past voting record, and occupation in order to calculate win probabilities in individual seats.
The poll puts Shrewsbury as a “likely Labour” seat and predicts that if the vote were to be held today, Labour would attract 48 per cent of the vote share, versus 28 per cent for the Conservatives in second place. Should it come to pass, it would represent a reversal of the 2019 ballot, which saw Conservative incumbent Daniel Kawczynski take a 52.5 per cent share of the vote and a majority of around 11,000.
Elsewhere, North Shropshire is rated as a “likely Lib Dem” seat, with the polling company predicting that Helen Morgan would hold on to her seat ahead of Conservative rival Simon Baynes with a reduced majority compared to her 2021 by-election success over Neil Shastri-Hurst.
South Shropshire is rated as a “likely Conservative” seat although the Tory majority in the former Ludlow constituency is expected to fall from 2019, when Phillip Dunne gained a 64 per cent vote share, 25,000 votes ahead of Liberal Democrat rival Heather Kidd.
Nationally the data modelling suggests that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could win a historic majority of 194 seats, which would surpass the majority of 179 seats that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
If accurate, Labour is predicted to take 422 seats overall, and the Conservatives will see their number reduced to just 140.
The latest national voting intention poll from YouGov puts Labour on 40 per cent, the Tories on 19 per cent, Reform UK on 17 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent and the Greens on 7 per cent.
