Ludlow general election guide 2017 - Lib Dems hoping for resurgence in support

But it has been Lib Dem before, so the party will be hoping its grass roots resurgence over the past year may pay off, and pockets of south Shropshire also have strong Green support.

The constituency covers a huge 600-square-mile area and has historically proven very hard to predict – as it is virtually impossible to accurately poll the feelings of more than 66,000 potential voters spread out across multiple towns, each with its own identity but none containing more than 10,000 people.

It's hard to know if the people of Bishop’s Castle will vote in the same way as those in Bridgnorth, 30 miles and 50 minutes away down the B4368, or if the people who have grown up in south Shropshire will be swayed by the same policies and principles as those who have moved into the area in later life, who make up a large percentage of the pretty region's population.

In 2015 Ladbrokes at least correctly predicted that Ukip would be Mr Dunne's closest challenger, as challenger David Kelly came in at second place.

But Dunne was still re-elected with a landslide victory, also demolishing the hopes of Liberal Democrat hopeful Charlotte Barnes, whose party held the seat just two elections previously.

Barnes has since stepped down from public life, relinquishing her position as Bishop's Castle councillor mid-term – though her successor Jonny Keeley was voted in with ease, showing the Lib Dems are still by far the most popular in the south west Shropshire town.

This time around Heather Kidd, another Lib Dem councillor from up the road in Chirbury and Worthen, will be standing and may be in with a better chance. Councillor Kidd has stood against Dunne before in the 2010 elections and lost. But like Dunne, she is a former leader of South Shropshire District Council and has a long history in the politics of the area.

In 2015 the Lib Dems were at a low in popularity following their time in coalition with the Tories – but since we have had Brexit, with many seeing the party as the main champion of those upset by the Leave vote. Ukip has also not yet put a candidate forward for Ludlow.

The forthcoming EU negotiations may well be a focus of attention. Dunne campaigned for remain, but after the referendum, like Theresa May, he quickly made it clear that "no serious politician" would seek to overturn the vote, and supported the new PM's position.

He was also promoted from a defence minister to Minister for Health, second only to Jeremy Hunt – a move which could go other way for his popularity with his own constituents.

The fate of health services in Shropshire is likely to be one of the main issues in this election, with major concerns over the fate of maternity services in Ludlow and Bridgnorth, worries about where the county's main A&E is to be based – and how far away it will be from the rural south Shropshire towns – along with general worries about the potential downgrading of access to healthcare in rural parts where it is difficult to recruit nurses and doctors.

Mr Dunne's position in the Department of Health may be seen as a having a man in power for his own region, or it may be seen that he is now tied to the government's party line and unable to step in locally.

Both Green and Labour candidates are likely to make an issue of the state of the NHS.

Green Party candidate Hillary Wendt has a background in community mental health services and has said the link between poverty, inequality and health is one of her key issues, saying the Greens are determined that "we must place wellbeing for all at the centre of our policies".

Meanwhile Labour's Julia Buckley has already been campaigning against any downgrading of Bridgnorth's mid-wife-led maternity unit or Telford's A&E unit at Princess Royal Hospital, before she was announced as a candidate.

Both are outside bets to win the seat, though Bishop's Castle, Church Stretton and Ludlow also all known for being home to strong, active, environmentally conscious groups, with an arguably higher profile than in other Shropshire towns. Labour, however, has not traditionally done well in the rural constituency, though this time will benefit from having a locally-based candidate with campaign issues that are currently stirring strong passions where she lives.

Meet the candidates

Philip Dunne – Conservative

Defending his seat in the Ludlow constituency will be incumbent MP Philip Dunne. Having entered parliament the first time in 2005, dislodging the Liberal Democrat MP Matthew Green, Mr Dunne’s star has risen in the Conservative Party. Between 2005 and 2010 he supported David Cameron in his leadership campaign, and after re-election five years ago entered parliament as an unpaid assistant government whip in the House of Commons. In 2012 he was elevated to a new role as Minister for Defence Equipment, Support and Technology, and after Theresa May took over as PM he was re-shuffled to become Minister of State for Health. Prior to government, the old Etonian and Oxford graduate had served as leader of South Shropshire District Council. As well as farming, he has also worked in the banking sector, and was also one of the co-founders of the Ottakers chain of bookshops which was merged with Waterstones in 2006.

Dr Julia Buckley – Labour

Dr Buckley currently works at Wolverhampton City Council as a funding officer, writing applications that have secured substantial support for community groups, businesses and public services. She received a scholarship to conduct her PhD research in political institutions, which she completed in 2004, before lecturing in politics at the Universities of Nottingham and Wolverhampton.

The Bridgnorth mother has campaigned to keep the local maternity unit open and to ensure the nearest A&E at Telford is not downgraded. She is now campaigning on protecting a range of services and using her skills to bring funding into Shropshire to keep them open, and where appropriate, to modernise delivery.

Heather Kidd – Liberal Democrat

Former leader of South Shropshire District Council, and current Shropshire councillor for Chirbury and Worthen, Heather Kidd stood against Philip Dunne in 2010. The former Bishop’s Castle Community College teacher is known for her campaigning on schools, health, roads and better broadband and mobile phone signal in rural south west Shropshire. She played a key role in developing affordable housing policies previously and now is highly critical of changes to the planning process that she claims favours developers rather than residents. A mother of four daughters, one of whom is a nurse at Oswestry’s Orthopaedic Hospital, she has lived in Chirbury for 30 years. She said: “Shropshire must now have fair funding for health, schools and adult social care. It is time the people of Ludlow and Bridgnorth had a campaigning MP who stands up for our residents and makes our voice heard across both the county and the country.”

Hilary Wendt – Green Party

Long-time South Shropshire branch campaigner Hilary Wendt will be standing for the Greens. Ms Wendt is coordinator of the South Shropshire Green Party and moved to the county more than 10 years ago. Her partner’s father was Professor Ralph Crowe, county architect for Shropshire from the late 1950s, who designed many of the schools in the county and was principal architect for the Shirehall in Shrewsbury.

She previously worked in, developed and managed community-based inner-city mental health services, in both the voluntary and statutory sector. She said: “That’s given me a strong sense of how poverty and inequality sap people’s health and undermine communities. The Green Party is the only party that says we must place wellbeing for all at the centre of our policies.”

Profile: Classic Conservative seat

Covering an area of about 640 square miles, Ludlow is among the bigger parliamentary constituencies in England, with a low population density.

It has an electorate of just over 66,000, of whom an above average 73 per cent turned out to vote in both the 2010 and 2015 elections. It is another classic Conservative seat, with 97 per cent of its population white British, 27.8 per cent over the age of 65, and 70 per cent Christian.

From its most western point at Bishop’s Castle, the constituency stretches to Broseley on the outskirts of Telford, to Bridgnorth in the west, and Ludlow in the south. It also houses Clun, Cleobury Mortimer, Much Wenlock, Craven Arms and Church Stretton.

When the Conservatives lost the seat to the Liberal Democrats in 2001, Tory Philip Dunne, from a local farming family, bucked the trend and sneaked home with a majority of 2,027 votes in 2005 and has significantly increased his majority in every election since.

Ludlow town was a parliamentary borough from 1473 until 1885, when it was greatly expanded to replace the old Southern division of Shropshire, and became a new county division. Bishop’s Castle was among the standalone constituencies before the reorganisation, but as a so-called Rotten Borough was dismissed along with 56 others in the Reform Act of 1832.

Jasper More, who held the seat between 1960 and 1979, held his position for 19 years before retiring from the Commons in 1979.

When he died in 1987, it marked the end of a long-established Shropshire farming family which has produced MPs since 1640. Another well-known ex-MP in Ludlow was Lieutenant Colonel Uvedale Corbett, who stood between 1945 and 1951 and was the constituency’s first post-war MP.

Previous results:

2015: PHILIP DUNNE: (CON) - 26,093 David Kelly (Ukip) - 7,164 Charlotte Barnes (Lib Dem) - 6,469 Simon Slater (Lab) - 5,902 Jnet Phillips (Green) - 2,435 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 18,929

2010: PHILIP DUNNE: (CON) - 25,720 Heather Kidd (Lib Dem) - 15,971 Anthony Hunt (Lab) - 3,272 Christopher Gill (Ukip) - 2,127 Christina Evans (BNP) - 1,016 Jacqui Morrish (Green) - 447 Alan Powell (Monster) - 179 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 9,749

2005: PHILIP DUNNE: (CON) - 20,979 Matthew Green (Lib Dem) - 18,952 Nigel Knowles (Lab) - 4,974 Jim Gaffney (Green) - 852 Michael Zuckerman (Ukip) - 783 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 2,027

2001: MATTHEW GREEN (LIB DEM) - 18,620 Martin Taylor-Smith (Con) - 16,990 Nigel Knowles (Lab) - 5,785 Jim Gafney (Green) - 871 Paul Gutteridge (Ukip) - 858 LIB DEM MAJORITY - 1,630